Elections Canada and the Herd

Canadians chose their federal government yesterday.  As the results started rolling in last night, the CBC was quick to point out that the infamous Elections Canada results reporting blackout had, once again, been broken.  For those of you who are not familiar with the blackout law, it works something like this:

1.  Canada is a big country.  BIG.  When it's noon in Newfoundland, it's only 7:30 AM in Vancouver.  Or, perhaps more importantly, when the polls close on the east coast and the results start rolling in, there's still lots of time left before the voting stops in the west.

2.  Apparently someone in Ottawa agrees with Mark Earls.... i.e. Us humans are awfully good at copying each other.  And, when it comes to voting, it seems our government would prefer we keep our own counsel rather than resort to Herd behaviour.

3.  To keep us all in line, Section 329 of the Canada Elections Act bans the transmission of election results from any electoral district where polls have closed to districts where the polls are still open.

What I find interesting in all of this isn't how quickly the law was broken, but just how motivated we clearly are to work together as a Herd.  On twitter last night, there were more than a few Canadians from central and western Canada requesting the early election results.  And they found many fellow Canadians willing to help them out.  Our Herd nature was on full display - despite laws to the contrary.

Giving people stuff to do together isn't just smart marketing - it feeds our shared desire to... well... share.  It's just the way we're built.  And sharing - in all its manifestations - is the precursor to copying.... the very thing Elections Canada is trying to (unsuccessfully) guard against.

Comments

[Mark Dykeman]

This is a tough one, isn't it? I can understand the Elections Canada mandate: they don't want news of returns to influence the voters in later time zones and, at the same time, Maritimers would never get the "privilege" of seeing returns from the rest of Canada before they vote because of the way time zones are arranged.

Unfortunately for EC, the barn door isn't just open, it's been ripped off and it's lying on the group several miles away.

[Toronto life insurance broker]

The question is - if this really motivates sufficient force to change their minds and vote? I mean, if somebody is decided, he is decided - how many people are waiting for the news about results (especially when these news are not official) to get up and vote? If I am decided, I am going to vote no matter what's the situation, if I don't care about the situation, I just simply don't go, results or no results. Yes, there can be some people convinced during the last minutes, but I believe it's nothing...
Regards
Lorne

[cpirie]

Hey Lorne,

Thank you for the comment!

In elections, like everywhere else, we copy each other. (this is why lawn signs are so important in a political campaign - old school technology, I know...) Mark Earls' book Herd describes / explains this exceptionally well.

It is really a question of time... i.e. is there enough time after the polls close in the east to significantly impact voter behaviour in the west?

Also - I'm not sure the copying behaviour is that direct / linear. It isn't so much about people consciously waiting to hear about the results before making their decision... it's more subtle than that I think. I'm continuously surprised by just how many people make up their mind in the voting booth... and if they hear about / read about early results on their way to the polling station, then...???

cheers, cp